All prices are fetched daily from free, public APIs:
| Asset | Source | Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | CoinGecko API | BTC/USD |
| Gold | Yahoo Finance | GLD × 10 |
| Stocks | Yahoo Finance | SPY |
| Property | Yahoo Finance | VNQ |
Prices update daily at 6 PM ET after US market close.
ASI synthesizes six market signals into a single 0–100 reading. Each component is ranked against its 5-year history to produce a percentile score, then converted to a contribution.
| Component | Measures | Bullish When |
|---|---|---|
| VIX | Implied volatility | Low (complacency) |
| DXY | Dollar index | Weak (risk-on) |
| Spreads | HY-IG credit spread | Tight (confidence) |
| Curve | 2s10s yield spread | Steepening (growth) |
| Flows | ETF flows (7-day) | Inflows |
| BTC.D | Bitcoin dominance | Moderate (balanced) |
Example: VIX at 18.2 is in the 22nd percentile (historically low). Low VIX is bullish, so contribution = +6. Sum all six to get total adjustment from baseline 50.
Monte Carlo simulation with Markov state transitions. 1,000 paths generated, showing 10th–90th percentile range. Current ASI seeds the simulation.
Site code: github.com/iamoberlin/oberlin-workspace