5-Year Outlook
ASI 58 Constructive
Feb 3, 2026
VIX 18.2 +6
DXY 108.4 −3
Spreads 3.2% +4
Curve +42bp +2
Flows −$2.1B −4
BTC.D 61.2% +3
Defensive Cautious Constructive Aggressive
Moderate risk appetite. VIX compression and tight spreads favor equities, but dollar strength and ETF outflows warrant caution.
Opportunities
Q2 2026
Student Loan Payments Resume
Consumer spending shift
Q3 2026
Fed Rate Cuts Begin
Lock in mortgages
Q2 2027
AI Productivity Surge
Tech + automation plays
Q4 2027
Commercial Real Estate Bottom
REITs entry window
Apr 2028
Bitcoin Halving
Accumulate before
Nov 2028
US Presidential Election
Expect volatility
Q2 2029
Post-Halving BTC Peak Window
Take profits gradually
Q2 2030
Decade Review Point
Rebalance portfolio
Methodology

Data Sources

All prices are fetched daily from free, public APIs:

AssetSourceTicker
BitcoinCoinGecko APIBTC/USD
GoldYahoo FinanceGLD × 10
StocksYahoo FinanceSPY
PropertyYahoo FinanceVNQ

Prices update daily at 6 PM ET after US market close.

ASI: Adaptive Signal Index

ASI synthesizes six market signals into a single 0–100 reading. Each component is ranked against its 5-year history to produce a percentile score, then converted to a contribution.

ComponentMeasuresBullish When
VIXImplied volatilityLow (complacency)
DXYDollar indexWeak (risk-on)
SpreadsHY-IG credit spreadTight (confidence)
Curve2s10s yield spreadSteepening (growth)
FlowsETF flows (7-day)Inflows
BTC.DBitcoin dominanceModerate (balanced)
ASI = 50 + Σ(contribution)

Example: VIX at 18.2 is in the 22nd percentile (historically low). Low VIX is bullish, so contribution = +6. Sum all six to get total adjustment from baseline 50.

Probability Bands

Monte Carlo simulation with Markov state transitions. 1,000 paths generated, showing 10th–90th percentile range. Current ASI seeds the simulation.